هل نحن امام اخر فرصة لدينا لانقاذ الارض؟


من الافضل صياغة السؤال بطريقة اخرى: هل نحن امام اخر فرصة لدينا لانقاذ الحياة على كوكب الارض؟ الحقيقة هي ان الارض ككوكب موجود منذ الازل و سيبقى موجود لفترة طويلة حتى بعد اختفاء الحياة عن سطح هذا الكوكب. لكن هنالك خطر حقيقي يواجه البشرية الان, خطر التغير المناخي الذي يهدد جميع اشكال الحياة على الارض. نسمع بكثرة عن الحاجة لانقاذ الكوكب, فذلك كما يبين باولو كويلهو في رواياته الاخيرة – المنتصر يقف وحيدا – يعطينا شعور بالرضى لهدفنا النبيل, لكن الحقيقة اننا بحاجة لانقاذ انفسنا نحن. الكوكب سيستمر لكننا سنختفي

طبعا, كثير منا سمع عن التغيرات المناخية و الاخطار القادمة, و لكن قليل منا يعي ان خطر التغيير المناخي ليس خطر مستقبلي, بل هو خطر اني نواجهه اليوم في عدة مناطق حول الكرة الارضية. قليل منا يعرف ان التغييرات المناخية تقتل اكثر من 300,000 شخص سنويا حول العالم و تهدد حياة الاف اخرين. فيا ترى ما هو شعور العائلات السورية التي اضطرت الى مغادرة بيوتها في القرى و الضيعات السورية بسبب الجفاف؟ ما هو شعور الشعب اليمني عندما ضربه اعصار جونو و شرد الالاف السنة الماضية؟ و ما هو شعور المصريين اليوم و هم يرون دلتاهم تغرق يوما بعد يوم؟

الاخطارالتي تحيطنا كبيرة و حقيقية, و لكن للاسف فـأن الاعلام العربي شبه غائب عن القضايا البيئية. العالم يغلي, هنالك ادراك عالمي اليوم عن مدى خطورة التغير المناخي. انها اكبر مشكلة واجهتها البشرية منذ وجودها. يجب ان نعمل كلنا معا, الكل مسؤول اليوم و الكل عليه ان يكون على قدر المسؤولية اذا اردنا ان نرث شيئا للاجيال القادمة
دول العالم ستجتمع في كوبنهاجن في ديسمبر هذه السنة. اجتماع كوبنهاجن مهم جدا لتقسيم الاستحقاق المناخي بين دول العالم. المفاوضات ستكون صعبة جدا, فالدول لديها مصالح و مسؤوليات متضاربة. هنالك الدول الغربية التي ساهمت بالشكل الاكبر خلال العقد الماضي في الانبعاث الحراري, و هنالك الدول النامية و الكبيرة في عدد السكان كالصين و الهند التين تساهمان بانبعاث حراري اكبر اليوم بسبب النمو في اقتصاديتهما, و هنالك الدول المصدرة للنفط كالسعودية المهددة بخسائر اقتصادية كبيرة اذا توجه العالم للطاقة البديلة. المعادلة صعبة و معقدة فالتغيير المناخي ليس عادلا ابدا, الدول الغنية التي ساهمت بالقدر الاكبر من المشكلة في الماضي ستتضرر بشكل اقل من الدول الفقيرة التي لم تساهم ابدا في الانبعاث الحراري. العالم اليوم امام اختبار حقيقي, الكل يتمنى الخروج في معاهدة تعطي عدلا اكبر للقضية و لكن الكل يدرك ايضا انها قد تكون اخر فرصة لدينا

اخر فرصة؟ نعم فالكرة الارضية اليوم على حافة الاشباع من ثاني اكسيد الكربون الذي يمتص في المحيطات. هذا التشبع قد يصل الى نقطة مفصلية بحيث تبدأ الكرة الارضية بتسخين نفسها بتسارع. هذه النقطة محورية لانها قد تكون نقطة اللاعودة, النقطة التي لن ينفع بعدها اي جهد بشري للعودة. يحدد العلماء اعلى درجة اشباع ثاني اكسيد الكربون المقبولة ب350. تجاوز هذا الرقم يضعنا في مأزق حقيقي. للاسف فأننا قد تجاوزناه حقا ووصلنا الى 378 درجة و نواصل الصعود! العلماء صدمو و فزعو في صيف 2007 من الذوبان الكبير و المفاجىء للجليد في القطب الجنوبي (25% من الكتلة الجليدية اختفت فجأة) لانه فاق كل التوقعات العلمية و حسابات تأثير التغيرات المناخية. اليوم نحن نعلم ان الخطر يمكن ان يكون اكبر من ما نتوقع و قد يأتي ايضا اسرع من ما نتوقع. لدى الناشطين البيئيين خطة عمل للعودة الى رقم اقل من 350 خلال الاعوام القليلة القادمة و لاكن يجب على دول العالم الاتفاق و تحمل المسؤولية

الدول العربية لديها دور محوري في هذه المفاوضات, للاسف فأن السعودية موقفها غير مشجع من التغير المناخي حيث انها تحسب مصالحها الخاصة و بقصر نظر. للاسف ايضا فالموقف السعودي هو المسيطر على موقف الدول العربية, موقف دول الوبك المصدرة للنفط و الدول الافريقية التي تتزعمها السودان. اليوم نحن امام استحقاق حقيقي و واجب بشري للضغط على حكوماتنا العربية لاتخاذ الموقف المسؤول. يجب علينا العمل بجد لتوصيل اصواتنا ومطالبة اعلامنا العربي بأخذ دوره المناسب. قد يكون مستقبل البشرية في ايدينا نحن العرب, و قد نكون نحن الطرف الصعب في المعادلة لانقاذ البشرية. السعودية و باقي الدول العربية النفطية لديها اليوم فرصة حقيقية للتوجه نحو الطاقة البديلة فالعالم مستعد لمد يد المساعدة في وقت بدأنا نسمع فيه عن اقتراب نضوب المخزون النفطي

11 thoughts on “هل نحن امام اخر فرصة لدينا لانقاذ الارض؟

  1. I am in no position to make definite statements about the threats of global warming on life on this planet since this is not my expert field, but since I am interested in this field I will express my opinions on this matter.

    We know for sure today that global warming is true and it has its negative effects on the climate, but the more interesting question here is whether global warming can indeed put an end to life on earth.

    Earth has its own climate balancing system, take this for example:
    If the snow/ice glaciers in the poles melt, which is happening right now, the water level increases, a smaller part of earth's surface will be white due to the molten snow which will result in earths surface absorbing more heat, more water will vaporize which will result in a decrease in sea levels, more clouds will be formed, more of earths surface will be white which means less heat will be absorbed by earths surface.

    Here is another example:
    If the glaciers melt, sea level increases and gain heat due to the more heat absorption from light, this will result in a change in the waters movement around the continent and could cause another ice age.

    However, these are just models, they might not be true to the tiniest detail when put to practice due to the fact that there are a lot more factors that play small roles here and there that can result in a totally different result.

    I personally believe that global warming is somewhat over hyped, at least when it comes to activists that claim the world would reach a point of no return in 50 years according to their calculations.

    There are also groups that have shown studies that global warming is not caused by man, in fact it is natural and our planet has been through global warming in the past.

    Conclusion: Nothing is clear yet, and most of the estimations are inaccurate due to the fact that they fail at including all the factors that are involved in our planets climate.

    However, this doesn't mean we can treat our environment carelessly, we should rely more on renewable energy sources and make sure to decrease the green house emissions.

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  2. When I was home in the states visiting my sister, we had this same conversation on climate change and the use of alternative energy. One of my big questions is; Are the rich ready to put down their riches? Are they brave enough to take that money and make it work for them in another way that can help change Global warming? Sighhhh that takes a lot of heart, brains, and courage. I actually think it would be an awesome idea for local communities to start giving free educational classes on how we can do our part in helping humanity when it comes to global warming and the famous slogan (GOING GREEN). Most of us out here including myself are ignorqant when it comes to doing our part conserving energy.

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  3. Anonymous says:

    As an expert on climate change, I can make a definite remarks on climate change. First, to correct some of the earth balancing systems. When ice melt and sea levels rise, yes temperatures will also rise, and evaporation will also go up, but it will not lead in decrease in sea level. Because as temperature rises, water in oceans will expand to. Scientist calculated that if all ice melts, and oceans expand, we will have a 28m rise on the very long-term. Also evaporation of water and formation of clouds will not decrease temperature, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas and will actually raise temperature further. The way earth will create balance is through getting rid of us (humans and other species). At the end earth will remain, but it could become like the other planets in our solar system. There are many theories that say there was water on Mars, but things change.

    In ALL cases, how long are we going to debate if the suitcase in the room has a bomb or not. The precautionary principle is a recognized principle. How long are we going to play Russian roulette. Countries have signed and ratified the science that says climate change exists, that is caused by humans, and that it threatens life on earth in a way never faced before.

    NOW is time for ACTION.

    The problem what scientists also say that we need a total change in the way our societies function, and governments so far are not willing to sign to that.

    Through history, governments have done complete change in the way society functions in situations of War; like when the Allies replied to the Nazi threat. Science tells us that climate change is bigger than the threat of the Nazis, and equal to the threats of a global nuclear war. But because it is not a tangible threat, they don't act. Similar to when the US joined WWII. They didn't feel the threat until Pearl Harbor attack.

    Wael Hmaidan
    Executive Director
    IndyACT – the League of Independent Activists

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  4. Nizo, I guess that Wael has already given you a very good answer. There is really a big threat on life on this planet. We have to act very fast. If government are not doing the right thing, we should raise up our voices and push them to do so.

    Marie, you are right, there is a huge politics behind the climate change negotiations. Everyone know that there is a price that needs to be paid and everyone know that we all have to pay one way or another because if we didn't we will all lose. I have a big faith in humanity and really hope that they will reach a good agreement in copenhagen.

    Wael, thank you for the clarification, and thank you for the excellent workshop. It has really opened my eyes on the climate change issue and alerted me to act and spread the word.

    It is great what you are doing. Keep up the good job🙂

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  5. Wael, I thank you for your corrections and would like to read more of your views in the future.

    Anyway, I have to questions, the first is the one that I have stated in my first comment which is the change of the oceans water movment around the contenents, do you consider that a true fact that it will result in an ice age?

    The second one is, is it true that global warming would have happened anyway and we only accelerated its events?

    third, how long would it take before it reaches a critical condition to our lives as humans on this plant?

    fourth, have we reached a point of no return as some claim or not?

    I know that you can't answer all the questions since some are theories and others are estimations, but i would apreciate to hear your opinion on them.

    Thanks in advance, Nizar.

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  6. Anonymous says:

    Hi Nizo,

    Yes there is a threat that climate change would stop the ocean conveyer belt, but it will not lead to an ice age.

    These conveyer belts, such as the gulf stream, are important, because they redistribute heat from the equator towards the poles. That is why Barcelona in Spain has the same latitude as New York but is much warmer.

    The belts are also important for the distribution of nutrients. they take all the organic matter coming from the amazon and distribute them across the oceans, which is important to sustain marine life.

    Now these belts operate on the difference between salinity between Poles water and equator water. So when the Poles melt and all this fresh water goes into the oceans in the Poles, the water there will become less saline, which will eliminate the difference in salinity between Poles and equator, and thus endangering the shutting of the conveyer belts.

    This will lead to sudden decrease in temperature in Europe, but will not trigger an ice age. the shutting of the conveyer belts is that nutrients will not be distributed across the oceans and thus causing mass extinction of marine life.

    concerning global warming would have happened anyway. Yes, climate has been changing in history, but this change was happening over tens of thousands of years, while now it is happening in a matter of few decades. This means that life on earth will not have time to adapt like in history. For example, trees to relocate towards the poles need thousands of years. To give an analogy, there is a difference of you hitting a wall at 2km/hr or hitting it at 200km/hr.

    Concering how long it takes before it reaches a critical conditions, this is very relative. Already every year more than 300,000 individuals die, Australia is facing its worst drought in the past 1000 year, forest fires are increasing all over the planet (lebanon, California, Greece, Spain, Australia, etc.), and many other impacts. We are already facing dangerous climate impacts, and we should aim to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

    For some countries, like low-lying small island states like the Maldives, barbados, Tuvalu and many others that might drown under sea level this means that global temperature must not increase more than 1.5 degrees. For Europe this means global temp must not increase more than 2 degrees. We already have 0.8 degrees increase, and there is enough CO2 in the atmosphere to have 1.3 degrees increase.

    So in both cases we need to start reversing the way we produce energy before 2015. We need to return CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and reduce them further by 80% by 2050.

    Concerning 'the point of no return', we experts call it the tipping point. No one knows when we will reach them. Some scientists actually claim we already did reach them, while others still say there is hope. We prey that the second opinion is correct. Tipping points are related to having the oceans spilling the CO2 stored in them due to increased temperatures; and after the tundra melt, all the organic matter under it will decompose and cause further CO2 and methane emission and thus more warming. Also there is a chance that rainforests become dry enough to the extent that they start burning, which will also can lead to a tipping point. All of these mechanisms indicate that a tipping points can happen, where the climate would totally go out of control. These are actually some of the feedbacks, but there are still many others, and it can become a really tall post.

    So I will end it at this: Stephen Hawking, one of the most brilliant minds of our time, says that if we have 300 years time we might be able to invent the technology to inhabit other planets, but if climate change issue is not tackled we will not be able to last that long. If we continue in the same way we are doing the planet will reach temperatures of several hundred degrees like Mars way before that (from the film 'the Hour').

    Wael Hmaidan
    Executive Director
    IndyACT – the League of Independent Activists

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